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La Liga · Round 2 · 2026/27

Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction

· Riyadh Air Metropolitano · Atlético Madrid predictions · Villarreal predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit
AMAtlético Madrid crest

Atlético Madrid

2–2

Draw

VVillarreal crest

Villarreal

1X2

Atlético Madrid win

41%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Modal 1-1 · score miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Atlético Madrid win · 41%

Actual Draw

Modal score
Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridvsVVillarreal crestVillarreal

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win 41%

Atlético Madrid win
41%
Draw
26%
Villarreal win
33%
Atlético Madrid win %
41%

Predicted

Draw %
26%

Result

Villarreal win %
33%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Atlético Madrid win 41%, from a +14 Elo gap (1631 vs 1616).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.41-1.25.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Obed Vargas listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1631 +14 1616

Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal

La Liga table
Out
  • Obed Vargas · Atlético Madrid
  • Alexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid
  • Alassane Diatta · Villarreal
XI

Confirmed

4-4-2 / 4-4-2

Last 5

Atlético MadridL W W L W1.78-1.63 xG

VillarrealW L L D W1.55-1.20 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 12% · Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win · 41% · Miss

Expected goals

1.41–1.25

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Atlético Madrid versus Villarreal
Atlético Madrid goals012345
07%9%5%2%
110%12%8%3%
27%9%5%2%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
50%

Over · 4 goals · Miss

BTTS %
54%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal12.3%
  2. 1-09.9%
  3. 0-18.8%
  4. 2-18.7%
  5. 1-27.7%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid

Out

  • Obed Vargas · M · pending transfer
  • Alexander Sørloth · F · Muscle Injury

VVillarreal crestVillarreal

Suspended

  • Alassane Diatta · M · red card suspension

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid4-4-2

  1. 13Jan OblakG
  2. 17Dávid HanckoD
  3. 18Marc PubillD
  4. 22Alejandro GrimaldoD
  5. 24Robin Le NormandD
  6. 4Rodrigo MendozaM
  7. 6KokeM
  8. 20Giuliano SimeoneM
  9. 23Morten HjulmandM
  10. 7Kang-in LeeF
  11. 11Ademola LookmanF

VVillarreal crestVillarreal4-4-2

  1. 1Luiz JúniorG
  2. 8Juan FoythD
  3. 12Renato VeigaD
  4. 15Santiago MouriñoD
  5. 20Carlos RomeroD
  6. 10Alberto MoleiroM
  7. 14Santi ComesañaM
  8. 18Pape GueyeM
  9. 19Nicolas PépéM
  10. 9Georges MikautadzeF
  11. 22Ayoze PérezF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridL W W L W

  • A · Villarreal · 24 May 20261-51.16-2.48 xG
  • H · Girona FC · 17 May 20261-01.97-2.17 xG
  • A · Osasuna · 12 May 20262-11.56-2.30 xG
  • H · Celta Vigo · 9 May 20260-12.18-0.13 xG
  • A · Valencia · 2 May 20262-02.04-1.09 xG

VVillarreal crestVillarrealW L L D W

  • H · Atlético Madrid · 24 May 20265-12.48-1.16 xG
  • A · Rayo Vallecano · 17 May 20260-20.97-1.49 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 13 May 20262-30.83-0.87 xG
  • A · Mallorca · 10 May 20261-11.12-1.74 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 2 May 20265-12.36-0.76 xG

How to read the Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal probabilities

Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal (La Liga, 23 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Atlético Madrid win 41%. Expected goals are 1.41–1.25. Modal score 1-1 (12%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–2.

Atlético Madrid and Villarreal are close on expected goals (1.41–1.25), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 50% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Atlético Madrid win
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug, 16:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal

Who is favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 26%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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