Skip to main content
E90

La Liga · Round 4 · 2026/27

Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid Prediction

· San Mamés · Athletic Club predictions · Atlético Madrid predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic ClubvsAMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win 43%

Athletic Club win
29%
Draw
28%
Atlético Madrid win
43%
Athletic Club win %
29%
Draw %
28%
Atlético Madrid win %
43%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Atlético Madrid win 43%, from a -115 Elo gap (1516 vs 1631).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.07-1.38.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 13%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Beñat Prados listed out and 2 other absences.
Elo

1516 -115 1631

Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid

La Liga table
Out
  • Beñat Prados · Athletic Club
  • Dani Vivian · Athletic Club
  • Alexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid
XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2

Last 5

Athletic ClubD L L D L1.12-1.49 xG

Atlético MadridD W L W W1.26-2.14 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 13%

Verdict

Slight lean

Atlético Madrid win · 43%

Expected goals

1.07–1.38

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Athletic Club versus Atlético Madrid
Athletic Club goals012345
09%11%8%4%
19%13%9%4%
25%7%5%2%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
44%
BTTS %
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal13.4%
  2. 0-111.3%
  3. 0-09.2%
  4. 1-28.8%
  5. 1-08.6%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic Club

Out

  • Beñat Prados · M · Thigh Injury
  • Dani Vivian · D · Groin Injury

Doubtful

  • Andoni Gorosabel · D · Physical Discomfort

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid

Out

  • Alexander Sørloth · F · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic Club4-2-3-1

  1. 1Unai SimónG
  2. 5Yeray ÁlvarezD
  3. 14Aymeric LaporteD
  4. 15Hugo RincónD
  5. 31Johaneko Louis JeanD
  6. 8Oihan SancetM
  7. 9Iñaki WilliamsM
  8. 10Nico WilliamsM
  9. 18Mikel JauregizarM
  10. 28Peio CanalesM
  11. 11Gorka GuruzetaF

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético Madrid4-4-2

  1. 13Jan OblakG
  2. 17Dávid HanckoD
  3. 18Marc PubillD
  4. 22Alejandro GrimaldoD
  5. 24Robin Le NormandD
  6. 4Rodrigo MendozaM
  7. 6KokeM
  8. 20Giuliano SimeoneM
  9. 23Morten HjulmandM
  10. 7Kang-in LeeF
  11. 11Ademola LookmanF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

ACAthletic Club crestAthletic ClubD L L D L

  • A · FC Barcelona · 27 Aug 20260-00.25-4.23 xG
  • H · Sevilla · 22 Aug 20261-31.25-0.41 xG
  • A · Real Madrid · 23 May 20262-40.81-1.90 xG
  • H · Celta Vigo · 17 May 20261-12.49-0.15 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 13 May 20260-20.82-0.76 xG

AMAtlético Madrid crestAtlético MadridD W L W W

  • H · Villarreal · 23 Aug 20262-20.78-3.60 xG
  • H · Málaga CF · 19 Aug 20262-00.82-0.15 xG
  • A · Villarreal · 24 May 20261-51.16-2.48 xG
  • H · Girona FC · 17 May 20261-01.97-2.17 xG
  • A · Osasuna · 12 May 20262-11.56-2.30 xG

How to read the Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid probabilities

Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid (La Liga, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Atlético Madrid win 43%. Expected goals are 1.07–1.38. Modal score 1-1 (13%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Atlético Madrid holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.07–1.38). That shows up as Atlético Madrid win at 43%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 10:37 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Atlético Madrid win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 15:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid

Who is favourite for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 43%. Home 29%, draw 28%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 13% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions