Arsenal vs Everton – Premier League preview – Expected90

The Premier League fixture pits **Arsenal** (home) against **Everton** (away) on **24 Oct 2026** at 14:00 UTC. The full match preview can be found at the official Expected90 page: https://expected90.com/football-predictions/premier-league/arsenal-vs-everton.

Arsenal sit second in the table with 12 points, a goal‑difference of +4, while Everton are seventh with 9 points and a +3 goal‑difference. The Elo ratings show a clear advantage for Arsenal (1744.5) over Everton (1519.1), a differential of 225.4 points.

The model assigns a **58.79 %** probability to a home win, **25.26 %** to a draw, and **15.95 %** to an away win. These figures translate to display percentages of **58.8 %**, **25.3 %**, and **16.0 %** respectively.

Expected90’s **pl‑v1.1.0‑elo** model places the home side as the clear favourite. The win probability (≈ 59 %) exceeds the combined chance of a draw or away win by more than a third, reflecting Arsenal’s superior Elo and recent form.

The expected‑goals (xG) line shows Arsenal at **1.97** and Everton at **0.97**, reinforcing the probability spread. The model also estimates a **56.26 %** chance that the match will produce over 2.5 goals and a **55.28 %** probability that both teams will score (BTTS).

These percentages suggest a moderately open game: while Arsenal are expected to dominate, the likelihood of at least three goals and both sides finding the net remains above 50 %.

### Arsenal recent form (last 5 matches) | Date | Opponent | Home/Away | Result | Goals | xG | |------|----------|-----------|--------|-------|----| | 18 Oct 2026 | Nottingham Forest | Away | **W** | 1‑0 | 1.14‑0.90 | | 10 Oct 2026 | Leeds United | Home | **W** | 2‑1 | 2.33‑0.62 | | 19 Sep 2026 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Away | **L** | 0‑3 | 1.57‑1.30 | | 12 Sep 2026 | Sunderland | Away | **W** | 2‑0 | 1.97‑1.64 | | 06 Sep 2026 | Chelsea | Home | **W** | 2‑1 | 2.05‑0.39 |

Arsenal have recorded **4 wins and 1 loss** in their last five, scoring 7 and conceding 5.

### Everton recent form (last 5 matches) | Date | Opponent | Home/Away | Result | Goals | xG | |------|----------|-----------|--------|-------|----| | 17 Oct 2026 | Chelsea | Home | **L** | 0‑2 | 0.43‑1.47 | | 11 Oct 2026 | Hull City | Away | **D** | 2‑2 | 1.68‑1.33 | | 19 Sep 2026 | Ipswich Town | Home | **W** | 1‑0 | 2.31‑1.30 | | 12 Sep 2026 | Tottenham Hotspur | Away | **D** | 0‑0 | 1.17‑0.64 | | 06 Sep 2026 | Manchester United | Home | **D** | 2‑2 | 1.01‑0.72 |

Everton have **1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses**, with a balanced goal tally of 5‑6.

### Head‑to‑Head (last 6 meetings) - 14 Mar 2026: Arsenal 2‑0 Everton - 20 Dec 2025: Everton 0‑1 Arsenal - 05 Apr 2025: Everton 1‑1 Arsenal - 14 Dec 2024: Arsenal 0‑0 Everton - 19 May 2024: Arsenal 2‑1 Everton - 17 Sep 2023: Everton 0‑1 Arsenal

Arsenal have won 4 of the last 6 encounters, drawn once and lost once, indicating a historical edge that aligns with the current probability model.

#### Arsenal (home) - **Christos Tzolis** (midfielder) – out with a hamstring injury, expected to miss the match (out until 31 Oct). - **Piero Hincapié** (defender) – out with an ankle injury, expected to miss (out until 25 Oct). - **Bukayo Saka** (forward) – listed as doubtful due to a muscle injury; expected return after 06 Nov.

No missing players are reported for Everton.

The absence of Tzolis and Hincapié removes a creative midfielder and a defensive option from Arsenal’s lineup, while Saka’s doubtful status adds uncertainty to the attacking threat. Everton can field a full squad, which may help them stay competitive despite the lower probability of an away win.

Combining the Elo differential (225.4 points) with recent form and the xG figures, the model’s **58.8 %** home‑win probability appears well‑grounded. The **over‑2.5 goals** probability of **56.3 %** reflects Arsenal’s propensity to create chances (average xG ≈ 2.0) and Everton’s occasional defensive lapses (conceded xG ≈ 1.3 in recent games).

The **BTTS** probability of **55.3 %** suggests that, even if Arsenal dominate, Everton are likely to find the net at least once, especially given their recent 2‑2 draw with Hull City.

Overall, the data points to a match where Arsenal should have the upper hand, but the statistical margins leave room for a goal‑rich encounter and a possible goal from Everton.