# Expected90

> Football, expressed as probabilities.

Expected90 publishes pre-match football forecasts as probabilities: expected goals, home/draw/away shares, likely score, Over 2.5 and BTTS. Every forecast is timestamped, versioned, and scored after kick-off. It is a probability ledger, not a tipster service and not betting advice.

Live now: Liga Portugal (Portugal), La Liga (Spain), Premier League (England), Allsvenskan (Sweden), Ligue 1 (France), Serie A (Italy). A league goes public when its official model is frozen. Elo tables are public for each live league. Extra markets and more leagues are in development.

## Predictions

- [Football predictions](https://expected90.com/football-predictions): league directory
- [Football predictions today](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/today): kick-offs in Europe/Lisbon
- [Search](https://expected90.com/search): team, league, and match lookup
- [Elo ratings](https://expected90.com/elo): team strength from finished league matches
- [Liga Portugal predictions](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/liga-portugal)
- [Liga Portugal Elo](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/liga-portugal/elo)
- [La Liga predictions](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/la-liga)
- [La Liga Elo](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/la-liga/elo)
- [Premier League predictions](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/premier-league)
- [Premier League Elo](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/premier-league/elo)
- [Allsvenskan predictions](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/allsvenskan)
- [Allsvenskan Elo](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/allsvenskan/elo)
- [Ligue 1 predictions](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/ligue-1)
- [Ligue 1 Elo](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/ligue-1/elo)
- [Serie A predictions](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/serie-a)
- [Serie A Elo](https://expected90.com/football-predictions/serie-a/elo)

## Model

- [Methodology](https://expected90.com/methodology): Dixon-Coles score grid, Elo features, log loss
- [Scored ledger note](https://expected90.com/notes/calibration): dated log loss, RPS, ECE, and live 1X2
- [Model performance](https://expected90.com/performance): walk-forward samples plus live season
- [Liga Portugal results](https://expected90.com/performance/liga-portugal)
- [La Liga results](https://expected90.com/performance/la-liga)
- [Premier League results](https://expected90.com/performance/premier-league)
- [Allsvenskan results](https://expected90.com/performance/allsvenskan)
- [Ligue 1 results](https://expected90.com/performance/ligue-1)
- [Serie A results](https://expected90.com/performance/serie-a)
- [About](https://expected90.com/about)
- [Contact](https://expected90.com/contact)
- [Privacy](https://expected90.com/privacy)
- [Terms](https://expected90.com/terms)

## Comparisons

- [Expected90 vs Forebet](https://expected90.com/vs/forebet)
- [Expected90 vs PredictZ](https://expected90.com/vs/predictz)
- [Expected90 vs FootyStats](https://expected90.com/vs/footystats)
- [Expected90 vs Understat](https://expected90.com/vs/understat)
- [Football prediction alternatives](https://expected90.com/alternatives)

## Machine-readable

- [API field reference](https://expected90.com/docs/api): Prediction fields, freeze, CSV columns
- [Published predictions JSON](https://expected90.com/api/predictions)
- [Published predictions CSV](https://expected90.com/api/predictions.csv)
- [RSS feed](https://expected90.com/feed.xml)

## Optional

- Match URLs follow `/football-predictions/{league}/{home}-vs-{away}`
- Team hubs follow `/team/{club}`