Does Expected90 cover as many leagues as Understat?

Understat stops at the big five. Expected90 currently publishes Liga Portugal, La Liga, Premier League, Allsvenskan, Ligue 1, and Serie A. Overlap is La Liga, the Premier League, Ligue 1, and Serie A; even there the objects differ: shot xG versus a pre-match score grid.

Is Expected90 a Understat clone?

No. Understat is a shot-quality research site. Expected90 is a pre-match probability ledger. We do not reproduce their maps, and we do not pretend our λ is their shot xG.

Expected90 vs Understat

Understat is a reference xG site for Europe’s top five leagues: shot maps, timelines, and chance quality. It is excellent at describing what already happened on the pitch in those competitions. It does not publish a timestamped 1X2 / Over 2.5 / BTTS ledger, and it does not cover Liga Portugal.

Understat publishes at understat.com. This page is a product comparison, not a scrape of their pages.

How the products differ

Understat xG is shot-based. Expected90 “xG” on a match page is the pair of Poisson means for the fixture (λ home and λ away) that generate the score grid. They are not a shot map. If you need big-five chance quality after the fact, Understat is the tool. If you need a pre-match probability page that will still be there after full time, that is Expected90.

For a Premier League Saturday, Understat will show shot xG once the match is in progress or finished. Expected90 publishes the pre-match grid before kick-off, including leagues Understat does not model. Liga Portugal match URLs exist here; they do not exist on Understat.

Primary output

Expected90: Score-grid probabilities + xG means
Understat: Reference xG site for Europe’s top five leagues. Excellent for shot quality; it does not cover Liga Portugal and is not a 1X2 forecast product.

Betting CTAs

Expected90: None in V1
Understat: Free

Coverage

Expected90: Liga Portugal, La Liga, Premier League, Allsvenskan, Ligue 1, and Serie A
Understat: Analysts studying chance quality in the big five.

Tracked results

Expected90: Public scored ledger, including misses
Understat: Not a pre-match probability page per fixture

Best for

Expected90: Readers who want probabilities, not tips
Understat: Big-five xG research

	Expected90	Understat
Primary output	Score-grid probabilities + xG means	Reference xG site for Europe’s top five leagues. Excellent for shot quality; it does not cover Liga Portugal and is not a 1X2 forecast product.
Betting CTAs	None in V1	Free
Coverage	Liga Portugal, La Liga, Premier League, Allsvenskan, Ligue 1, and Serie A	Analysts studying chance quality in the big five.
Tracked results	Public scored ledger, including misses	Not a pre-match probability page per fixture
Best for	Readers who want probabilities, not tips	Big-five xG research

Expected90 is better if

You need a pre-match 1X2 / Over 2.5 / BTTS page, not a shot map
The fixture is Liga Portugal or Allsvenskan, which Understat does not model
You want those markets summed from the same score grid, frozen before kick-off

Understat is better if

Big-five xG research

When to use Understat

Stay on Understat for big-five shot maps and post-match chance quality. Use Expected90 for a frozen pre-match distribution, and for Liga Portugal or Allsvenskan fixtures Understat does not cover.

We are not claiming a better xG model than Understat. We are claiming a different artefact: a scored 1X2 page, including leagues they do not cover.

Open predictions

Expected90 vs Understat questions

Should I switch from Understat to Expected90?: Stay on Understat for big-five shot maps and post-match chance quality. Use Expected90 for a frozen pre-match distribution, and for Liga Portugal or Allsvenskan fixtures Understat does not cover.
Does Expected90 cover as many leagues as Understat?: Understat stops at the big five. Expected90 currently publishes Liga Portugal, La Liga, Premier League, Allsvenskan, Ligue 1, and Serie A. Overlap is La Liga, the Premier League, Ligue 1, and Serie A; even there the objects differ: shot xG versus a pre-match score grid.
Is Expected90 a Understat clone?: No. Understat is a shot-quality research site. Expected90 is a pre-match probability ledger. We do not reproduce their maps, and we do not pretend our λ is their shot xG.