Comparison
Expected90 vs Understat
Football, expressed as probabilities. Understat is Reference xG site for Europe’s top five leagues. Excellent for shot quality; it does not cover Liga Portugal and is not a 1X2 forecast product.
Primary output
- Expected90
- Calibrated-style probabilities + xG
- Understat
- Expected goals for the big five
Betting CTAs
- Expected90
- None in V1
- Understat
- Free
Live leagues
- Expected90
- Liga Portugal, La Liga, and Premier League
- Understat
- Reference xG site for Europe’s top five leagues. Excellent for shot quality; it does not cover Liga Portugal and is not a 1X2 forecast product.
Tracked results
- Expected90
- Published, including noisy rounds
- Understat
- Not a pre-match probability page per fixture
Best for
- Expected90
- Readers who want probabilities, not tips
- Understat
- Big-five xG research
Expected90 is better if
- Readers who want probabilities, not tips
- Match pages with documented models as leagues come online
- People who will check last week’s forecasts
Understat is better if
- Big-five xG research
We are not claiming a higher win rate than Understat. We are claiming a different product: fewer leagues, more explanation, and a public record.
Expected90 vs Understat questions
Should I switch from Understat to Expected90?
Switch if you want a calm probability page per match and a public miss rate. Live now: Liga Portugal, La Liga, and Premier League. Stay on Understat if you need big-five xg research.
Does Expected90 cover as many leagues as Understat?
Not yet. Understat is built for breadth. Expected90 publishes Liga Portugal, La Liga, and Premier League today, with timestamps and a scored ledger, and only adds a league when the model is frozen. More competitions are in development.
Is Expected90 a Understat clone?
No. Understat reference xG site for Europe’s top five leagues. Excellent for shot quality; it does not cover Liga Portugal and is not a 1X2 forecast product. Expected90 publishes probabilities, not tips.