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Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC Prediction

· Portman Road Stadium · Ipswich Town predictions · Liverpool FC predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

ITIpswich Town crestIpswich TownvsLLiverpool FC crestLiverpool FC

Win probabilities

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win 57%

Ipswich Town win
18%
Draw
25%
Liverpool FC win
57%
Ipswich Town win %
18%
Draw %
25%
Liverpool FC win %
57%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Liverpool FC win 57%, from a -264 Elo gap (1380 vs 1643).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.03-1.95.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Azor Matusiwa listed out and 7 other absences.
Elo

1380 -264 1643

Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC

Premier League table
Out
  • Azor Matusiwa · Ipswich Town
  • Jack Taylor · Ipswich Town
  • Conor Bradley · Liverpool FC
  • Federico Chiesa · Liverpool FC
XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Ipswich TownW L L L D1.15-0.90 xG

Liverpool FCD D L D L1.78-1.57 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 12%

Verdict

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win · 57%

Expected goals

1.03–1.95

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Ipswich Town versus Liverpool FC
Ipswich Town goals012345
07%8%10%6%3%
14%12%10%6%3%
23%5%5%3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
57%
BTTS %
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal11.9%
  2. 1-29.9%
  3. 0-29.6%
  4. 0-18.1%
  5. 0-06.8%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

ITIpswich Town crestIpswich Town

Out

  • Azor Matusiwa · M · Muscle Injury
  • Jack Taylor · M · Knee Injury
  • Jaden Philogene-Bidace · M · Ankle Injury

LLiverpool FC crestLiverpool FC

Out

  • Conor Bradley · D · Knee Injury
  • Federico Chiesa · F · Back Injury
  • Giovanni Leoni · D · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Joe Gomez · D · Strain Injury
  • Stefan Bajčetić · M · Hamstring Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

ITIpswich Town crestIpswich Town4-2-3-1

  1. 37Kjell ScherpenG
  2. 3Leif DavisD
  3. 6Issa DiopD
  4. 24Jacob GreavesD
  5. 26Dara O'SheaD
  6. 7Abdul Fatawu IssahakuM
  7. 10Julio EncisoM
  8. 23Saša LukićM
  9. 32Marcelino NúñezM
  10. 38Daizen MaedaM
  11. 19EmersonnF

LLiverpool FC crestLiverpool FC4-2-3-1

  1. 1AlissonG
  2. 4Virgil van DijkD
  3. 5Jérémy JacquetD
  4. 6Miloš KerkezD
  5. 30Jeremie FrimpongD
  6. 7Florian WirtzM
  7. 8Dominik SzoboszlaiM
  8. 18Cody GakpoM
  9. 38Ryan GravenberchM
  10. 73Rio NgumohaM
  11. 9Alexander IsakF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

ITIpswich Town crestIpswich TownW L L L D

  • H · Sunderland · 22 Aug 20262-11.80-0.66 xG
  • H · West Ham United · 25 May 20251-30.74-1.08 xG
  • A · Leicester City · 18 May 20250-21.41-0.80 xG
  • H · Brentford · 10 May 20250-10.93-1.41 xG
  • A · Everton · 3 May 20252-20.85-0.55 xG

LLiverpool FC crestLiverpool FCD D L D L

  • A · Newcastle United · 23 Aug 20262-22.98-1.58 xG
  • H · Brentford · 24 May 20261-13.04-1.56 xG
  • A · Aston Villa · 15 May 20262-41.43-1.85 xG
  • H · Chelsea · 9 May 20261-10.56-0.50 xG
  • A · Manchester United · 3 May 20262-30.89-2.34 xG

How to read the Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC probabilities

Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC (Premier League, 4 Sept 2026): Clear lean — Liverpool FC win 57%. Expected goals are 1.03–1.95. Modal score 1-1 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Liverpool FC is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.03–1.95). Liverpool FC win is 57% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 1-1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
29 Aug 2026, 09:53 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Liverpool FC win
Kick-off
Fri 4 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC

Who is favourite for Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 57%. Home 18%, draw 25%, away 57%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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