Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United Prediction

Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Lisbon · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Tottenham Hotspur predictions · Newcastle United predictions

Published 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 0/4 checks hit

Tottenham Hotspur

0–2

Newcastle United won

Newcastle United

Prediction

1-1

Favourite Tottenham Hotspur win · 37%

Game pick

Draw

Slight · 30%Miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Tottenham Hotspur win · 37%

Actual Newcastle United won

Most likely score

Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 0–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Tottenham HotspurvsNU

Newcastle United

Win probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur win: 37%
Draw: 30%
Newcastle United win: 33%

Tottenham Hotspur win %: 37%
Draw %: 30%
Newcastle United win %: 33%

Tottenham Hotspur's 37% home win tracks a -81 Elo gap (1467 vs 1547) and 1.42-1.32 expected goals, with Dejan Kulusevski listed out and 5 other absences.

Elo

1467 -81 1547

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United

Premier League table

Out

Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham Hotspur
Wilson Odobert · Tottenham Hotspur
Dan Burn · Newcastle United
Joelinton · Newcastle United

Predicted XI

4-3-2-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Tottenham HotspurL W L D W1.05-1.31 xG

Newcastle UnitedD L W D W1.65-1.67 xG

Predicted score

1-1

Most likely scoreline · 14% · Miss

Game pick

Draw

Slight · 30% · Miss

Expected goals

1.42–1.32

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 52%
BTTS %: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

1-114.1%
2-18.6%
0-08.5%
1-28.0%
1-07.1%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

THTottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur

Out

Dejan Kulusevski · M · Knee Injury
Wilson Odobert · F · Cruciate Ligament Injury
Xavi Simons · M · Cruciate Ligament Injury

Doubtful

James Maddison · M · Shoulder Injury
Pape Matar Sarr · M · Hamstring Injury

NUNewcastle United crestNewcastle United

Out

Dan Burn · D · Ankle Injury
Joelinton · M · Muscle Injury
William Osula · F · Knock Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

THTottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur4-3-2-1

31Antonín KinskýG
3Andy RobertsonD
6Jan Paul van HeckeD
23Pedro PorroD
37Micky van de VenD
16Sandro TonaliM
17SavinhoM
18Mateus FernandesM
30Rodrigo BentancurM
11Mathys TelF
19Dominic SolankeF

NUNewcastle United crestNewcastle United4-2-3-1

21Lukáš HorníčekG
3Lewis HallD
4Sven BotmanD
12Malick ThiawD
68Amar DedićD
28Joe WillockM
41Jacob RamseyM
67Lewis MileyM
9Yoane WissaF
11Harvey BarnesF
19Anthony ElangaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

THTottenham Hotspur crestTottenham HotspurL W L D W

A · Brentford · 22 Aug 20260-30.57-3.87 xG
H · Everton · 24 May 20261-01.15-0.41 xG
A · Chelsea · 19 May 20261-21.27-0.63 xG
H · Leeds United · 11 May 20261-11.27-1.34 xG
A · Aston Villa · 3 May 20262-10.99-0.32 xG

NUNewcastle United crestNewcastle UnitedD L W D W

H · Liverpool FC · 23 Aug 20262-21.58-2.98 xG
A · Fulham · 24 May 20260-20.31-1.81 xG
H · West Ham United · 17 May 20263-11.73-0.95 xG
A · Nottingham Forest · 10 May 20261-11.48-1.10 xG
H · Brighton & Hove Albion · 2 May 20263-13.16-1.53 xG

How to read the Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United (Premier League, 29 Aug 2026): the model gives Tottenham Hotspur win 37%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.32. Most likely score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–2.

Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United are close on expected goals (1.42–1.32), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Game pick: Draw · Slight
Kick-off: Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United

Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?

The highest 1X2 probability is Tottenham Hotspur win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 30%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.