Skip to main content
E90

Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Bournemouth vs Everton Prediction

· Vitality Stadium · Bournemouth predictions · Everton predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit
BBournemouth crest

Bournemouth

1–1

Draw

EEverton crest

Everton

Prediction

2-1

Favourite Bournemouth win · 44%

Game pick

Bournemouth win

Slight · 44%Miss

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Bournemouth win · 44%

Actual Draw

Most likely score
Miss

Predicted 2-1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

BBournemouth crestBournemouthvsEEverton crestEverton

Win probabilities

Bournemouth win
44%
Draw
29%
Everton win
27%
Bournemouth win %
44%

Predicted

Draw %
29%

Result

Everton win %
27%

Bournemouth's 44% home win tracks a +48 Elo gap (1570 vs 1522) and 1.59-1.20 expected goals, with Amine Adli listed out and 5 other absences.

Elo

1570 +48 1522

Bournemouth vs Everton

Premier League table
Out
  • Amine Adli · Bournemouth
  • Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth
  • Christian Nørgaard · Everton
  • Tim Iroegbunam · Everton
XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

BournemouthL D D W W1.35-1.54 xG

EvertonW L L D D1.38-1.59 xG

Predicted score

2-1

Most likely scoreline · 9% · Miss

Game pick

Bournemouth win

Slight · 44% · Miss

Expected goals

1.59–1.20

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
53%

Under · 2 goals · Miss

BTTS %
58%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 1-1Result13.7%
  2. 2-19.3%
  3. 0-08.1%
  4. 1-07.8%
  5. 2-07.7%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

BBournemouth crestBournemouth

Out

  • Amine Adli · F · Calf Injury
  • Eli Junior Kroupi · F · Foot Injury
  • Julián Araujo · D · Thigh Injury
  • Veljko Milosavljević · D · Knock Injury

EEverton crestEverton

Out

  • Christian Nørgaard · M · Muscle Injury
  • Tim Iroegbunam · M · Groin Injury

Doubtful

  • Hayden Hackney · M · Knock Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

BBournemouth crestBournemouth4-2-3-1

  1. 1Đorđe PetrovićG
  2. 3Adrien TruffertD
  3. 5James HillD
  4. 14António SilvaD
  5. 15Adam SmithD
  6. 8Alex ScottM
  7. 10Ryan ChristieM
  8. 16Marcus TavernierM
  9. 19Justin KluivertM
  10. 37RayanM
  11. 9EvanilsonF

EEverton crestEverton4-2-3-1

  1. 1Jordan PickfordG
  2. 6James TarkowskiD
  3. 16Vitaliy MykolenkoD
  4. 32Jarrad BranthwaiteD
  5. 8Kiernan Dewsbury-HallM
  6. 10Iliman NdiayeM
  7. 34Merlin RöhlM
  8. 37James GarnerM
  9. 45Harrison ArmstrongM
  10. 11Thierno BarryF
  11. 19Tyrique GeorgeF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

BBournemouth crestBournemouthL D D W W

  • A · Manchester City · 23 Aug 20261-20.65-2.25 xG
  • A · Nottingham Forest · 24 May 20261-10.95-1.73 xG
  • H · Manchester City · 19 May 20261-12.25-1.48 xG
  • A · Fulham · 9 May 20261-00.82-1.33 xG
  • H · Crystal Palace · 3 May 20263-02.08-0.89 xG

EEverton crestEvertonW L L D D

  • H · Crystal Palace · 22 Aug 20262-01.12-1.96 xG
  • A · Tottenham Hotspur · 24 May 20260-10.41-1.15 xG
  • H · Sunderland · 17 May 20261-31.04-0.76 xG
  • A · Crystal Palace · 10 May 20262-21.59-2.56 xG
  • H · Manchester City · 4 May 20263-32.72-1.54 xG

How to read the Bournemouth vs Everton probabilities

Bournemouth vs Everton (Premier League, 29 Aug 2026): the model gives Bournemouth win 44%. Expected goals are 1.59–1.20. Most likely score 2-1 (9%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Bournemouth holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.59–1.20). That shows up as Bournemouth win at 44%, not a lock.

The modal score 2-1 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Game pick
Bournemouth win · Slight
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Bournemouth vs Everton

Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Everton?

The highest 1X2 probability is Bournemouth win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 29%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Bournemouth vs Everton?

2-1 is the modal scoreline at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid, which is normal in football.

Will Bournemouth vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Everton?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

Related predictions

All Premier League predictions