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Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction

· Stadium of Light · Sunderland predictions · Fulham predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

SSunderland crestSunderlandvsFFulham crestFulham

Win probabilities

Sunderland win
43%
Draw
29%
Fulham win
29%
Sunderland win %
43%
Draw %
29%
Fulham win %
29%

Sunderland's 43% home win tracks a -44 Elo gap (1469 vs 1514) and 1.57-1.26 expected goals, with Dayann Methalie suspended and 2 other absences.

Elo

1469 -44 1514

Sunderland vs Fulham

Premier League table
Out
  • Dayann Methalie · Sunderland
  • Simon Adingra · Sunderland
  • Tom Cairney · Fulham
XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

SunderlandL W W D D1.03-1.21 xG

FulhamL W D L L1.29-1.60 xG

Predicted score

2-1

Most likely scoreline · 9%

Game pick

Sunderland win

Slight · 43%

Expected goals

1.57–1.26

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
54%
BTTS %
59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 1-113.6%
  2. 2-19.2%
  3. 0-07.8%
  4. 1-27.4%
  5. 1-07.3%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SSunderland crestSunderland

Out

  • Simon Adingra · M · Foot Injury

Suspended

  • Dayann Methalie · M · yellow card accumulation suspension

FFulham crestFulham

Out

  • Tom Cairney · M · Knee Injury

Doubtful

  • Luc De Fougerolles · D · Knock Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

SSunderland crestSunderland4-2-3-1

  1. 22Robin RoefsG
  2. 5Daniel BallardD
  3. 15Omar AldereteD
  4. 17Reinildo MandavaD
  5. 20Nordi MukieleD
  6. 32Trai HumeD
  7. 10Nilson AnguloM
  8. 27Noah SadikiM
  9. 28Enzo Le FéeM
  10. 34Granit XhakaM
  11. 9Brian BrobbeyF

FFulham crestFulham4-2-3-1

  1. 1Bernd LenoG
  2. 3Calvin BasseyD
  3. 5Joachim AndersenD
  4. 21Timothy CastagneD
  5. 33Antonee RobinsonD
  6. 8César PalaciosM
  7. 14Oscar BobbM
  8. 16Sander BergeM
  9. 17Alex IwobiM
  10. 24Joshua KingM
  11. 7Gonzalo GarcíaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SSunderland crestSunderlandL W W D D

  • A · Ipswich Town · 22 Aug 20261-20.66-1.80 xG
  • H · Chelsea · 24 May 20262-11.84-0.89 xG
  • A · Everton · 17 May 20263-10.76-1.04 xG
  • H · Manchester United · 9 May 20260-01.25-0.62 xG
  • A · Wolverhampton · 2 May 20261-10.66-1.72 xG

FFulham crestFulhamL W D L L

  • H · Chelsea · 24 Aug 20262-31.33-2.24 xG
  • H · Newcastle United · 24 May 20262-01.81-0.31 xG
  • A · Wolverhampton · 17 May 20261-11.59-1.40 xG
  • H · Bournemouth · 9 May 20260-11.33-0.82 xG
  • A · Arsenal · 2 May 20260-30.37-3.23 xG

How to read the Sunderland vs Fulham probabilities

Sunderland vs Fulham (Premier League, 30 Aug 2026): the model gives Sunderland win 43%. Expected goals are 1.57–1.26. Most likely score 2-1 (9%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Sunderland holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.57–1.26). That shows up as Sunderland win at 43%, not a lock.

The modal score 2-1 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 54% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Game pick
Sunderland win · Slight
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sunderland vs Fulham

Who is favourite for Sunderland vs Fulham?

The highest 1X2 probability is Sunderland win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 29%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sunderland vs Fulham?

2-1 is the modal scoreline at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid, which is normal in football.

Will Sunderland vs Fulham go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sunderland vs Fulham?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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