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Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction

· Estádio do Rio Ave FC · Rio Ave predictions · Sporting CP predictions

Confirmed XI snapshot · pre-lineup kept · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 3/4 checks hit
RARio Ave crest

Rio Ave

0–4

Sporting CP won

SCSporting CP crest

Sporting CP

Prediction

1-2

Favourite Sporting CP win · 64%

Game pick

Sporting CP win

Lean · 64%Hit

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Sporting CP win · 64%

Actual Sporting CP won

Most likely score
Miss

Predicted 1-2

Actual 0–4

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

RARio Ave crestRio AvevsSCSporting CP crestSporting CP

Win probabilities

Rio Ave win
12%
Draw
23%
Sporting CP win
64%
Rio Ave win %
12%
Draw %
23%
Sporting CP win %
64%

Predicted · Result

Sporting CP's 64% away win tracks a -353 Elo gap (1459 vs 1812) and 0.81-2.04 expected goals, with Brandon Aguilera listed out and 2 other absences.

Elo

1459 -353 1812

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

Liga Portugal table
Out
  • Brandon Aguilera · Rio Ave
  • Cezary Miszta · Rio Ave
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Rio AveW L L D L0.64-1.76 xG

Sporting CPW W D W W1.81-0.85 xG

Before XI vs confirmed

Confirmed XI is a second freeze. The pre-lineup numbers stay on this page and are not rewritten.

Before XI

13% / 24% / 63%

Rio Ave · draw · Sporting CP

λ 0.81–2.00

Confirmed

12% / 23% / 64%

Rio Ave · draw · Sporting CP

λ 0.81–2.04

Predicted score

1-2

Most likely scoreline · 10% · Miss

Game pick

Sporting CP win

Lean · 64% · Hit

Expected goals

0.81–2.04

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
54%

Over · 4 goals · Hit

BTTS %
50%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 0-212.0%
  2. 1-111.2%
  3. 0-110.1%
  4. 1-29.8%
  5. 0-38.2%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RARio Ave crestRio Ave

Out

  • Brandon Aguilera · M · Anterior Cruciate Ligament
  • Cezary Miszta · G · Back Injury
  • Ryan Guilherme · M · Unknown

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP

No listed absences.

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

RARio Ave crestRio Ave4-2-3-1

  1. 99Ennio Van Der GouwG
  2. 5Andreas NdojD
  3. 17Marios VrousaiD
  4. 23Francisco PetrassoD
  5. 39Gustavo ManchaD
  6. 7Diogo BezerraM
  7. 11Jalen BlesaM
  8. 44Tamás NikitscherM
  9. 54Georgios LiavasM
  10. 77Dario ŠpikićM
  11. 9Tamblé MonteiroF

SCSporting CP crestSporting CP4-2-3-1

  1. 1Rui SilvaG
  2. 6Zeno DebastD
  3. 20Maximiliano AraújoD
  4. 22Iván FresnedaD
  5. 25Gonçalo InácioD
  6. 5Sergi AltimiraM
  7. 10Geny CatamoM
  8. 17Rodrigo ZalazarM
  9. 58Flávio GonçalvesM
  10. 77Issa DoumbiaM
  11. 97Luis Javier SuárezF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RARio Ave crestRio AveW L L D L

  • A · Estoril Praia · 22 Aug 20262-00.70-1.16 xG
  • H · FC Porto · 15 Aug 20260-20.58-1.97 xG
  • A · Gil Vicente · 9 Aug 20260-10.19-1.66 xG
  • A · Casa Pia · 16 May 20261-10.75-2.45 xG
  • H · Sporting CP · 11 May 20261-40.97-1.56 xG

SCSporting CP crestSporting CPW W D W W

  • H · FC Alverca · 22 Aug 20263-12.12-0.41 xG
  • H · Vitória SC · 14 Aug 20263-21.12-1.12 xG
  • A · CF Estrela Amadora · 8 Aug 20262-22.63-1.10 xG
  • H · Gil Vicente · 16 May 20263-01.61-0.64 xG
  • A · Rio Ave · 11 May 20264-11.56-0.97 xG

How to read the Rio Ave vs Sporting CP probabilities

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP (Liga Portugal, 28 Aug 2026): the model gives Sporting CP win 64%. Expected goals are 0.81–2.04. Most likely score 1-2 (10%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–4.

Sporting CP is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.81–2.04). Sporting CP win is 64% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 1-2 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 54% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:42 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Pre-lineup snapshot
26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Game pick
Sporting CP win · Lean
Kick-off
Fri 28 Aug, 20:15 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

Who is favourite for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

The highest 1X2 probability is Sporting CP win at 64%. Home 12%, draw 23%, away 64%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

Did the Rio Ave vs Sporting CP probabilities change after the XI?

Before XI the grid was home 13%, draw 24%, away 63%. The confirmed snapshot is home 12%, draw 23%, away 64%. Both freezes stay on the page; neither is rewritten after kick-off.

What is the most likely score for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

1-2 is the modal scoreline at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid, which is normal in football.

Will Rio Ave vs Sporting CP go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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