Skip to main content
E90

La Liga · Round 3 · 2026/27

Real Sociedad vs Espanyol Prediction

· Reale Arena · Real Sociedad predictions · Espanyol predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 3/4 checks hit
RSReal Sociedad crest

Real Sociedad

2–1

Real Sociedad won

EEspanyol crest

Espanyol

Prediction

2-1

Favourite Real Sociedad win · 41%

Game pick

Real Sociedad win

Slight · 41%Hit

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Real Sociedad win · 41%

Actual Real Sociedad won

Most likely score
Hit

Predicted 2-1

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

RSReal Sociedad crestReal SociedadvsEEspanyol crestEspanyol

Win probabilities

Real Sociedad win
41%
Draw
28%
Espanyol win
32%
Real Sociedad win %
41%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
28%
Espanyol win %
32%

Real Sociedad's 41% home win tracks a +34 Elo gap (1490 vs 1456) and 1.38-1.19 expected goals, with Jon Pacheco listed out and 3 other absences.

Elo

1490 +34 1456

Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

La Liga table
Out
  • Jon Pacheco · Real Sociedad
  • Pablo Marín · Real Sociedad
  • Leandro Cabrera · Espanyol
XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2

Last 5

Real SociedadL L D L D0.96-2.11 xG

EspanyolL W D W W1.33-1.43 xG

Predicted score

2-1

Most likely scoreline · 9% · Hit

Game pick

Real Sociedad win

Slight · 41% · Hit

Expected goals

1.38–1.19

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
47%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS %
53%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 1-113.2%
  2. 1-010.0%
  3. 2-1Result8.7%
  4. 0-18.5%
  5. 0-08.3%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

RSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

Out

  • Jon Pacheco · D · coach decision
  • Pablo Marín · M · Muscle Injury
  • Álvaro Odriozola · D · ACL Knee Injury

EEspanyol crestEspanyol

Suspended

  • Leandro Cabrera · D · red card suspension

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

RSReal Sociedad crestReal Sociedad4-2-3-1

  1. 1Álex RemiroG
  2. 2Jon AramburuD
  3. 5Igor ZubeldiaD
  4. 17Sergio GómezD
  5. 31Jon MartinD
  6. 7Ander BarrenetxeaM
  7. 14Takefusa KuboM
  8. 18Carlos SolerM
  9. 21Yangel HerreraM
  10. 24Luka SučićM
  11. 10Mikel OyarzabalF

EEspanyol crestEspanyol4-4-2

  1. 13Marko DmitrovićG
  2. 5Clemens RiedelD
  3. 14Unai NúñezD
  4. 21Roger HinojoD
  5. 23Omar El HilaliD
  6. 4Urko GonzálezM
  7. 8Edu ExpósitoM
  8. 22Álex CalatravaM
  9. 24Tyrhys DolanM
  10. 28Javier HernándezM
  11. 9Roberto FernándezF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RSReal Sociedad crestReal SociedadL L D L D

  • A · Real Madrid · 26 Aug 20261-40.57-3.14 xG
  • A · Real Betis · 21 Aug 20260-11.36-1.24 xG
  • A · Espanyol · 23 May 20261-11.40-2.41 xG
  • H · Valencia · 17 May 20263-41.15-1.67 xG
  • A · Girona FC · 14 May 20261-10.33-2.11 xG

EEspanyol crestEspanyolL W D W W

  • H · Real Madrid · 22 Aug 20261-21.12-2.92 xG
  • H · Levante UD · 16 Aug 20263-01.55-0.28 xG
  • H · Real Sociedad · 23 May 20261-12.41-1.40 xG
  • A · Osasuna · 17 May 20262-10.79-1.72 xG
  • H · Athletic Club · 13 May 20262-00.76-0.82 xG

How to read the Real Sociedad vs Espanyol probabilities

Real Sociedad vs Espanyol (La Liga, 29 Aug 2026): the model gives Real Sociedad win 41%. Expected goals are 1.38–1.19. Most likely score 2-1 (9%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

Real Sociedad and Espanyol are close on expected goals (1.38–1.19), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 2-1 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 47% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
28 Aug 2026, 18:40 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Game pick
Real Sociedad win · Slight
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

Who is favourite for Real Sociedad vs Espanyol?

The highest 1X2 probability is Real Sociedad win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 28%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Real Sociedad vs Espanyol?

2-1 is the modal scoreline at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid, which is normal in football.

Will Real Sociedad vs Espanyol go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Real Sociedad vs Espanyol?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

Related predictions

All La Liga predictions