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La Liga · Round 1 · 2026/27

Espanyol vs Levante UD Prediction

· RCDE Stadium · Espanyol predictions · Levante UD predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 1 · 2/4 checks hit
EEspanyol crest

Espanyol

3–0

Espanyol won

LLevante UD crest

Levante UD

Prediction

2-1

Favourite Espanyol win · 41%

Game pick

Espanyol win

Slight · 41%Hit

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Espanyol win · 41%

Actual Espanyol won

Most likely score
Miss

Predicted 2-1

Actual 3–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

EEspanyol crestEspanyolvsLLevante UD crestLevante UD

Win probabilities

Espanyol win
41%
Draw
27%
Levante UD win
32%
Espanyol win %
41%

Predicted · Result

Draw %
27%
Levante UD win %
32%

Espanyol's 41% home win tracks a -6 Elo gap (1453 vs 1459) and 1.33-1.13 expected goals, with Kike García listed out and one other absence.

Elo

1453 -6 1459

Espanyol vs Levante UD

La Liga table
Out
  • Kike García · Espanyol
  • Roger Brugué · Levante UD
XI

Confirmed

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

EspanyolD W W L L1.16-1.48 xG

Levante UDL W W W L2.04-1.41 xG

Predicted score

2-1

Most likely scoreline · 9% · Miss

Game pick

Espanyol win

Slight · 41% · Hit

Expected goals

1.33–1.13

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
45%

Over · 3 goals · Miss

BTTS %
50%

No · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 1-112.8%
  2. 1-011.5%
  3. 0-19.7%
  4. 2-18.6%
  5. 0-08.5%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

EEspanyol crestEspanyol

Out

  • Kike García · F · Hamstring Injury

LLevante UD crestLevante UD

Suspended

  • Roger Brugué · M · red card suspension

Starting XI

Confirmed

SofaScore has confirmed both starting elevens.

EEspanyol crestEspanyol4-2-3-1

  1. 13Marko DmitrovićG
  2. 5Clemens RiedelD
  3. 14Unai NúñezD
  4. 23Omar El HilaliD
  5. 29Roger HinojoD
  6. 4Urko GonzálezM
  7. 8Edu ExpósitoM
  8. 22Álex CalatravaM
  9. 24Tyrhys DolanM
  10. 28Javier HernándezM
  11. 9Roberto FernándezF

LLevante UD crestLevante UD4-2-3-1

  1. 13Mathew RyanG
  2. 2Aïssa MandiD
  3. 4Adrián de la FuenteD
  4. 23Manuel SánchezD
  5. 29Nacho PérezD
  6. 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
  7. 10Carlos ÁlvarezM
  8. 17Víctor GarcíaM
  9. 20Oriol ReyM
  10. 27Paco CortésM
  11. 9Iván RomeroF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

EEspanyol crestEspanyolD W W L L

  • H · Real Sociedad · 23 May 20261-12.41-1.40 xG
  • A · Osasuna · 17 May 20262-10.79-1.72 xG
  • H · Athletic Club · 13 May 20262-00.76-0.82 xG
  • A · Sevilla · 9 May 20261-20.61-1.38 xG
  • H · Real Madrid · 3 May 20260-21.21-2.10 xG

LLevante UD crestLevante UDL W W W L

  • A · Real Betis · 23 May 20261-22.53-1.57 xG
  • H · Mallorca · 17 May 20262-02.39-0.30 xG
  • A · Celta Vigo · 12 May 20263-21.52-2.18 xG
  • H · Osasuna · 8 May 20263-22.99-0.63 xG
  • A · Villarreal · 2 May 20261-50.76-2.36 xG

How to read the Espanyol vs Levante UD probabilities

Espanyol vs Levante UD (La Liga, 16 Aug 2026): the model gives Espanyol win 41%. Expected goals are 1.33–1.13. Most likely score 2-1 (9%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 3–0.

Espanyol and Levante UD are close on expected goals (1.33–1.13), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The modal score 2-1 carries 9%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
15 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.1.0-elo
Game pick
Espanyol win · Slight
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Espanyol vs Levante UD

Who is favourite for Espanyol vs Levante UD?

The highest 1X2 probability is Espanyol win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 27%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Espanyol vs Levante UD?

2-1 is the modal scoreline at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid, which is normal in football.

Will Espanyol vs Levante UD go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Espanyol vs Levante UD?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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