Liga Portugal · Round 4 · 2026/27

FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo Prediction

Sat 29 Aug, 15:30 Lisbon · Estádio Municipal de Arouca · FC Arouca predictions · CS Marítimo predictions

Published 26 Aug 2026, 12:24 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 4 · 2/4 checks hit

FC Arouca

2–1

FC Arouca won

CS Marítimo

Prediction

1-1

Favourite FC Arouca win · 43%

Game pick

Draw

Slight · 30%Miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted FC Arouca win · 43%

Actual FC Arouca won

Most likely score

Miss

Predicted 1-1

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FC AroucavsCM

CS Marítimo

Win probabilities

FC Arouca win: 43%
Draw: 30%
CS Marítimo win: 27%

FC Arouca win %: 43%
Draw %: 30%
CS Marítimo win %: 27%

FC Arouca's 43% home win tracks a +87 Elo gap (1504 vs 1416) and 1.48-1.14 expected goals, with Nathanael Ogbeta listed out.

Elo

1504 +87 1416

FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo

Liga Portugal table

Out

Nathanael Ogbeta · CS Marítimo

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

FC AroucaL W W W W1.24-1.42 xG

CS MarítimoD W W L W1.07-0.78 xG

Predicted score

1-1

Most likely scoreline · 14% · Miss

Game pick

Draw

Slight · 30% · Miss

Expected goals

1.48–1.14

Model λ for home and away

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 49%
BTTS %: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Most likely scorelines

1-114.4%
0-09.5%
2-1Result9.1%
1-08.7%
2-08.0%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca

No listed absences.

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo

Out

Nathanael Ogbeta · D · Unknown

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

AFC Arouca crestFC Arouca4-2-3-1

12Ignacio de ArruabarrenaG
3Jose FontánD
15Javi SánchezD
18Orest LebedenkoD
28Tiago EsgaioD
6Espen Van EeM
7Naïs DjouahraM
8Taichi FukuiM
14Hyun-ju LeeM
19Alfonso TrezzaM
17Ivan BarberoF

CMCS Marítimo crestCS Marítimo4-2-3-1

13Alfonso PastorG
2Igor JuliãoD
4Rafael FernandesD
23Paulo HenriqueD
44Romain CorreiaD
6Rodrigo AndradeM
10Martín TejónM
11Simo BouzaidiM
14Raphael GuzzoM
18Vladan DanilovićM
17Adrián ButzkeF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AFC Arouca crestFC AroucaL W W W W

A · FC Porto · 23 Aug 20260-20.54-2.92 xG
H · Moreirense · 16 Aug 20264-02.14-0.49 xG
A · Vitória SC · 8 Aug 20261-00.43-2.28 xG
H · Tondela · 16 May 20263-11.77-0.62 xG
A · Gil Vicente · 11 May 20263-11.32-0.77 xG

CMCS Marítimo crestCS MarítimoD W W L W

H · Académico Viseu FC · 22 Aug 20262-21.28-1.84 xG
A · Famalicão · 16 Aug 20262-11.61-0.59 xG
H · Casa Pia · 8 Aug 20261-01.39-0.67 xG
A · Estoril Praia · 27 May 20231-30.00-0.00 xG
H · Vizela · 19 May 20231-0

How to read the FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo probabilities

FC Arouca vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 29 Aug 2026): the model gives FC Arouca win 43%. Expected goals are 1.48–1.14. Most likely score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

FC Arouca holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.48–1.14). That shows up as FC Arouca win at 43%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.